Oxford Mathematician explains SIR Travelling Wave disease model for COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

The SIR model is one of the simplest ways to understand the spread of a disease such as COVID-19 (Coronavirus) through a population. Allowing the movement of populations makes the model slightly more realistic and results in ‘Travelling Wave’ solutions.

In this video, Oxford University Mathematician Dr Tom Crawford explains how including population migration modifies the original SIR model. He then goes on to use the results of the model to answer two important questions:

  1. How fast will the disease spread?
  2. How severe will the epidemic be?

The answers to these questions are discussed in the context of the current COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak. The model tells us that to reduce the impact of the disease we need to lower the ‘contact ratio’ as much as possible – which is exactly what current social distancing measures are designed to do.

Watch the first video on the basic SIR model here.

Exponential Growth explained for the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Epidemic

Oxford University Mathematician Dr Tom Crawford explains exponential growth in the context of an epidemic such as that for COVID-19/Coronavirus. Beginning with one primary infection we see how the number of cases increases dramatically over a period of only 30 days to more than one thousand. All sources are referenced below.

The value of the reproductive number R0 = 3 is taken from current World Health Organisation estimates. Please see here for more information.

The data for the UK population is from 2018 and is sourced from Statista here.

The data for the COVID-19/Coronavirus death rate is from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Please see here for more information.

La Razon: Math with Rock

A translation of an article about my work in Spanish newspaper La Razon. You can read the original article here.

Mathematics was, as for so many classmates with little numerical capacity, the coconut of my adolescence. In a twisting mortal with pedagogy, my teacher came to suspend me with a 4.9. I always stayed 0.1 to understand algebra and today I can’t survive without a calculator. I am not proud. I wonder if everything would have gone better with Tom Crawford. This Brit is a professor at Oxford, but he doesn’t wear a herringbone jacket or bottle-butt glasses nor is he older than the polka. Tom is an AC / DC math, the punk kid in the bunch. Unlike the old masters, he does not use the ruler as a throwing weapon but, at most, to measure the meters of cloth that is removed from each lesson. He is a “naked scientist”, not as a nod to precariousness but as a seduction pedagogical strategy. “I want to take the solemnity off the math, make it entertaining,” he says.

That goes through a “look” of a hangover rocker with a given shirt, sucks, piercing, tattoos and hair dye. He calls himself “Tom Rocks Maths.” His profiles on networks and his informative videos, in which he ends up posing in leopard-print briefs, have legions of followers. Will it be the solution to my problems? Be that as it may, Crawford was in Madrid yesterday, for the first time in Spain, to give a talk in his own way about mathematics applied to sport. The event took place at the Student Residence, where in 1923 another weird boy, with more clothes and more hair, Einstein, summed up his theory of relativity in an act presented and translated by Ortega and Gaset. The list of visits to that leading institution is as interesting as that of its well-known students: Lorca, Dalí, Buñuel …

The Residence has long become part of a memorial of what it was, but its teaching program continues far from the spotlight, without neglecting the field of science, which seems to have been overlapped when speaking of the Residence due to talent. creative of the boys of Letters already mentioned. Tom Crawford is the last visit and, although we may feel like a histrion or a secondary actor in “Trainspotting”, we must not forget that this is purely an eminence from Oxford.

Photo: Jesus G. Feria

Oxford Mathematician explains SIR disease model for COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

The SIR model is one of the simplest disease models we have to explain the spread of a virus through a population. I first explain where the model comes from, including the assumptions that are made and how the equations are derived, before going on to use the results of the model to answer three important questions:

  1. Will the disease spread?
  2. What is the maximum number of people that will have the disease at one time?
  3. How many people will catch the disease in total?

The answers to these questions are discussed in the context of the current COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak. The model tells us that to reduce the impact of the disease we need to lower the ‘contact ratio’ as much as possible – which is exactly what the current social distancing measures are designed to do.

Produced by Dr Tom Crawford at the University of Oxford.

Teddy Rocks Maths Essay Competition

Entries for the first ‘Teddy Rocks Maths’ Essay Competition are now open! This is YOUR chance to write a short article about your favourite mathematical topic which could win you a prize of up to £100. ENTER HERE: https://seh.ac/teddyrocksmaths

All entries will be showcased on tomrocksmaths.com with the winners published on the St Edmund Hall website. St Edmund Hall (or Teddy Hall as it is affectionately known) is a college at the University of Oxford where Tom is based.

Entries should be between 1000-2000 words and must be submitted as Microsoft Word documents or PDF files using the form at https://seh.ac/teddyrocksmaths

The closing date is 12 March 2020 and the winners will be announced in April 2020.

Two prizes of £50 are available for the overall winner and for the best essay from a student under the age of 18. There are no eligibility requirements – all you need is a passion for Maths and a flair for writing to participate!

The winners will be selected by Dr Tom Crawford, Maths Tutor at St Edmund Hall and the creator of the ‘Tom Rocks Maths’ outreach programme. The mathematical topic of your entry can be anything you choose, but if you’re struggling to come up with ideas here are a few examples to get you started:

Where does river water go when it enters the ocean? – Numberphile

Would alien geometry break our brains? – Tom Rocks Maths intern and maths undergraduate Joe Double

How many ping-pong balls would it take to raise the Titanic from the ocean floor?

If you have any questions or would like more information please get in touch with Tom using the contact form here – Good luck!!

Visiting Students at St Edmund Hall

Calling all US-based students, if you have ever thought you would like to have me as your college professor, now is your chance. I am currently in charge of the visiting student mathematics programme at St Edmund Hall, which means anyone accepted onto the programme will have weekly tutorials with yours truly. Information on the course specifics and how to apply can be found on the St Edmund Hall website here.

Courses available include (but are not limited to):

Michaelmas Term (Autumn)

  • Linear Algebra
  • Geometry
  • Real Analysis: Sequences and Series
  • Probability
  • Introductory Calculus
  • Differential Equations
  • Metric Spaces and Complex Analysis
  • Quantum Theory

Hilary Term (Winter)

  • Linear Algebra
  • Groups and Group Actions (continues next term)
  • Real Analysis: Continuity and Differentiability
  • Dynamics
  • Fourier Series and PDEs
  • Multivariable Calculus
  • Differential Equations
  • Numerical Analysis
  • Statistics
  • Fluid and Waves
  • Integral Transforms

Trinity Term (Spring)

  • Constructive Mathematics
  • Groups and Group Actions (continued)
  • Real Analysis: Integration
  • Statistics and Data Analysis
  • Calculus of Variations
  • Special Relativity
  • Mathematical Biology

The detailed course synopses, as well as some course materials can be found here.

If you have any questions please get in touch with Tom via the contact form, or the admissions office at St Edmund Hall via admissions@seh.ox.ac.uk.

Photo: Flemming, Heidelberg Laureate Forum


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