Tom worked with Honor on a campaign to calculate which teams across Europe have had the worst luck when it comes to injuries so far this season. Full press release for the UK market below.

POINTS AND POSITIONS AT RISK: NEW FOOTBALL INJURY DATA ANALYSIS SUGGESTS WHICH CLUBS NEED TO ACT FAST AS TRANSFER DEADLINE LOOMS

As the transfer window heats up, a new data analysis commissioned by HONOR, to mark the launch of the durable Magic7 Lite, provides insights into the impact of player injuries on European football clubs, and ultimately who could benefit from securing player transfers ahead of the 3^rd February deadline.

HONOR identified Europe’s 28 ‘Unluckiest Football Clubs’ in the first half of the 24/25 campaign (August 2024 – January 2025) – those who experienced a statistically high number of unexpected injuries.

HONOR commissioned football data analyst, Daniel Wold, and Oxford University mathematician Dr. Tom Crawford to delve into the numbers to uncover how injuries affect the current halfway point league standings and points earned. The analysis highlights ultimately who could benefit from securing player transfers ahead of the 3^rd February deadline and suggests where strategic transfer decisions may be rapidly needed to help mitigate the impact of injuries affecting the performance of clubs.

Brighton & Hove Albion F.C was found to be the unluckiest English team in both the European ranking and the English Premier League, with a mammoth 10,620 minutes lost due to injury and a decline of three positions vs 23/24 season, suggesting that new signings are urgently needed to help the team regain its lost ground.

Despite setbacks, Arsenal exhibited strong durability and perhaps less urgency to secure new players ahead of deadline day, with the squad’s resilience to injury enabling them to overcome the 7,470 minutes lost to injuries and increase its position by two places vs the previous season.

The data analysis predicted Premier League teams to experience 18 injuries in the first half of the season. Brighton & Hove Albion dramatically exceeded this, suffering six more injuries than predicted, while Arsenal experienced one more than anticipated. This disparity highlights the vastly different injury challenges faced by the two clubs.

Among this season’s unluckiest European clubs, a correlation between injury days, points and positions highlighted that excessive injuries typically derail a team’s chances of success – resulting in:

• Points Penalty: On average one point is lost for every 177 injury days. This translates to a loss of 0.0057 points per day a player is sidelined.
• League Position Impact:  Clubs typically slip one position in the league standings for every 542 days lost to injury. This equates to a loss of 0.0018 league positions per day of injury.

The analysis underscores the impact of injuries and the importance of clubs making strategic decisions during the transfer window, to build a squad that’s resilient enough to withstand the physical setbacks of the game.

In collaboration with HONOR, ex-professional footballer Adebayo Akinfenwa (AFC Wimbledon, Wycombe Wanderers, Swansea City, Millwall, FK Atlantas) commented on the importance of squad resilience: “Injuries are a game-changer. They’re an unseen opponent that can derail even the strongest teams. This transfer window, clubs need to prioritise squad resilience. A team’s ability to withstand setbacks can determine their success. It’s not just about signing new players; it’s about building a squad that can take the hits and keep going.”

Avikar Jolly, CMO, HONOR Europe said: “As the transfer deadline looms, it’s fascinating to see how clubs have weathered the storm of excessive injuries, with some clear winners and losers emerging. Football’s a tough game with injuries being part of the deal, much like the HONOR Magic7 Lite, it’s all about taking a knock and being strong enough to keep on going.”

“In England, Brighton finds itself in a precarious situation being both 3 positions and 3 points below last season’s performance.” Explains Oxford University mathematician and football enthusiast Dr. Tom Crawford, “As such, they should be on high alert as the January transfer window approaches. Securing some key transfers could provide the much-needed boost to their performance in the second half of the season.”

Despite the teams exceeding the extreme injuries threshold, some have managed to buck the trend, with injuries not translating into a loss of points and position, showcasing the strength and durability as the season progresses.

Take Serbia’s Red Star Belgrade. Despite suffering the most unexpected injuries across all European countries, they’ve shown remarkable resilience. They managed to increase both their points (+9) and position (+1), defying the odds and making them the standout team in our analysis. Spanish heavyweights Real Madrid, who despite a minor setback of losing two points, admirably also held onto their league position.

On the other end of the spectrum, Hungary’s Debreceni VSC bore the brunt of the impact, suffering the highest losses in both position (-6) and points (-12).